All models are wrong; some models are useful Essay

All models atomic number 18 wrong some models are useful - Essay utilizationMathematical models are therefore very useful because Mathematics itself is an abstract language enables us to take in the representation numerically and visually, and offers powerful tools and techniques for quantitative analysis and forecasting. Usually, this involves defining constants, assigning variables, and forming structures such as functions, equations, diagrams, graphs and so on that establish the relationships between the various quantities. For example, car journeys, traffic patterns, and airline routes can all be sculptural using matrices.However, despite the aforementioned features of mathematical modeling, it has limitations too. The most fundamental perhaps is the trade-off between chasteness and accuracy of the model. Usually, more than complex models tend to improve its accuracy but at the same beat of course make it more complicated to handle, which could also mean greater cost and required time. Therefore, when decision making which model to choose, the level of accuracy required balanced against need and the available resources is the most important consideration. If more than one different model is able to forecast with equal predictive accuracy, the Occams Razor tenet suggests choosing the simplest model.With regards to forecasting, mathematical models can often be tested for accuracy using empirical or experimental data. If it is able to describe this accurately, it can then be used for forecasting purposes, for which several methods exist. These include wretched averages, exponential smoothing, techniques for extrapolating time serial with tend and seasonal components, and regression models. In all of these however, there are gaps between the complexity of the real world and the simplicity of these abstract models. The models true utility program would then be tested if the extrapolation to other or future data or situations proves successful. Time series and forecasting is one of